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Journal of Economic Integration 2017 June;32(2) :400-432.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.11130/jei.2017.32.2.400
Secular Stagnation in Non-EMU European Countries : Equilibrium Real Rate Approach
Jens Klose 
THM Business School, Giessen, Germany
Corresponding Author: Jens Klose ,Tel: +496413094006, Fax: +496413092906, Email: Jens.Klose@w.thm.de
Copyright ©2017 Journal of Economic Integration
ABSTRACT
Concerns about economies facing secular stagnation—a period of persistently lower growth—have been renewed after the start of the financial crisis in 2008~2009. This issue is well investigated for the euro area as a whole or for the individual countries forming the monetary union, with the general consensus being that secular stagnation is not present in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). So far no studies have been conducted for the remaining European countries, and thus this study tackles this issue for the five non-EMU European countries using the well-established Laubach–Williams model to estimate the unobservable equilibrium real interest rate and compare it with the actual real rate. The obtained results have important implications for national policymakers, i.e., if secular stagnation is present in one country, then there is a risk of growth divergence with the country’s most important trading partners. The results also indicate that secular stagnation is not a significant threat to the non-EMU European countries, so they do not face structurally different growth dynamics compared with those of the euro area.

JEL Classification
C32: Time Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
E43: Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
F45: Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
Keywords: Comparative Advantage-based Intra-national Trade | Intra-national Spillovers | Regional Input-output Tables | Regional Disparity | Endogenous Growth Model
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