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Journal of Economic Integration 2017 December;32(4) :759-803.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.11130/jei.2017.32.4.759
China’s Slowdown and Rebalancing
: Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa
Csilla Lakatos
Maryla Maliszewska
Israel Osorio-Rodarte and 
Delfin Go 
The World Bank, Washington DC, United States
Corresponding Author: Csilla Lakatos ,Email: clakatos1@worldbank.org
Copyright ©2017 Journal of Economic Integration
ABSTRACT
This paper explores the economic impacts of two related tracks of China’s expected transformation, that is, economic slowdown and rebalancing away from investment toward consumption. It estimates the spillovers for the rest of the world with a special focus on Sub-Saharan African countries. By 2030, an average 1 percent annual slowdown of China’s GDP is expected to result in 1.1 percent GDP decline in Sub- Saharan Africa and a 0.6 percent global slowdown relative to past trends. However, if China’s transformation also entails substantial rebalancing, the negative income effects of the economic slowdown could be offset through higher overall imports by China and positive terms-of-trade effects for its trading partners. Slowdown and rebalancing in China is estimated to increase GDP by 4.7 percent for Sub-Saharan Africa and by 4.8 percent for the global economy. China’s transformation is also estimated to reduce poverty, but the extent depends on country in the sub-saharan Africa.

JEL Classification
C68: Computable General Equilibrium Models
D31: Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions
D58: Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
F17: Trade Forecasting and Simulation
F63: Economic Development
I32: Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
O55: Africa
Keywords: Trade | Poverty | Africa | China | Computable General Equilibrium Model | Microsimulations
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