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Journal of Economic Integration 2002 June;17(2) :397-415.
The J-Curve: Evidence from East Asia
Anil K. Lal and 
Thomas C. Lowinger 
Pittsburg State University
Washington State University
Copyright ©2002 Journal of Economic Integration
This paper examines the determinants of trade balances of seven East Asian countries, using cointegration technique, error correction model, and impulse response function. Among other things, our investigation confirms the existence of J-curve effect and the results show that there are significant differences in the duration and the extent of the J-curve effect across countries. Several explanations consistent with those findings are advanced in the paper, including differences in exchange rate and trade regimes across sample countries. It is likely that liberalization of an exchange rate regime coupled with liberalization of trade may act to dampen the J-curve effect.
Keywords: t
1. Akaike, H. (1969), "Fitting Autoregressive Models for predictions," Annals of International Statistics and Mathematics; pp 243-247.
2. Krugman, P. and M. Obstfeld (2000), International Economics, Fifth Edition; Addison-Wesley, , Reading, MA.
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