| China’s CPTPP Accession: Economic Gains and Trade Risks |
Zhigao Hu1, Jiayi Zhang2, Jing Li1 |
1Business School of Shantou University, Shantou Guangdong, China
2WMG College, Warwick University, Coventry, United Kingdom |
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Corresponding Author:
Zhigao Hu ,Email: huzg_scholar@163.com |
| Copyright ©2025 The Journal of Economic Integration |
| ABSTRACT |
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This study evaluates the economic implications of China’s potential accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model. Results reveal that CPTPP membership would generally boost import-export growth rates across most industries, with significant benefits for agriculture, textiles, papermaking, and minerals, whereas extraction, petrochemicals, automotive, steel, machinery, and electronics sectors gain less. The CPTPP induces trade diversion, enhancing China’s GDP and social welfare under normal conditions, but such gains diminish under trade sanctions. While joining the CPTPP improves trade terms and expands surplus in standard scenarios, sanctions could reverse these outcomes. Consequently, China should pursue CPTPP integration while proactively addressing sanctions risks to minimize adverse effects.
JEL Classification
F13: Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
F47: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications |
| Keywords:
GTAP Model | CPTPP | Tariff Barriers | Non-Tariff Barriers | Trade Sanctions
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