| Trade Diversion in the US Market during the US-China Trade War: Firm-level Evidence from Thailand |
Kazunobu Hayakawa1, Souknilanh Keola2 |
1Bangkok Research Center, Institute of Developing Economies, Thailand
2Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia, Indonesia |
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Corresponding Author:
Kazunobu Hayakawa ,Email: kazunobu_hayakawa@ide-gsm.org |
| Copyright ©2025 The Journal of Economic Integration |
| ABSTRACT |
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The US-China trade war, which began in the latter half of the 2010s, has led to increased exports from third countries to the US. This paper presents a firm-level analysis of such an increase in Thailand. Specifically, we empirically examine changes in the export rankings of Thai firms exporting to the US. Our dataset includes the top 1,500 Thai exporters to the US. By linking US tariffs on Chinese goods to exporters at the four-digit industry level, we assess the impact of these tariffs on firms' export rankings. We find that, on average, US tariffs are not significantly associated with the export rankings of Thai firms. However, major importers from China in Thailand benefit from trade diversion in the US market. Furthermore, firms in Thailand with investment from China, Singapore, the US, and Europe have increased their exports to the US following the onset of the trade war.
JEL Classification
F15: Economic Integration
F53: International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations |
| Keywords:
US-China Trade War | Nationality | Thailand
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